Data and Code for Brexit Uncertainty and its (Dis)Service Effects

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Saad Ahmad, U.S. International Trade Commission; Sarah Oliver, U.S. International Trade Commission; Serge Shikher, U.S. International Trade Commission; Nuno Limao, University of Maryland

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
  AEJ repo revised 02/08/2023 06:56:PM
README-Brexit Services Uncertainty.pdf application/pdf 296.9 KB 02/08/2023 01:48:PM

Project Citation: 

Ahmad, Saad, Oliver, Sarah , Shikher, Serge, and Limao, Nuno. Data and Code for Brexit Uncertainty and its (Dis)Service Effects. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2023. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-10-18. https://doi.org/10.3886/E173961V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary
We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in
services. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade
with the European Union at the industry level from 2016Q1 to 2018Q4. By exploiting
the variation in the probability of Brexit from prediction markets interacted with a
new trade policy risk measure across service industries we identify a significant negative
impact of the threat of Brexit on trade values and participation. The increased
probability of Brexit in this period lowered services exports by at least 20 log points.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Brexit; Services Trade; Trade Policy; Uncertainty
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      F02 International Economic Order and Integration
      F13 Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
      F14 Empirical Studies of Trade
      L80 Industry Studies: Services: General
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage European Union United Kingdom
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 2016 – 2018
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) aggregate data; program source code


Related Publications

Download this project

Published Versions

V1 [2023-10-18]

Export Metadata

Dublin Core

DDI 2.5

Report a Problem

Found a serious problem with the data, such as disclosure risk or copyrighted content? Let us know.

This material is distributed exactly as it arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.