Data and Code for: Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Pablo Guerron-Quintana, Boston College; Tomohiro Hirano, Royal Holloway, University of London; Ryo Jinnai, Hitotsubashi University

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
H.dat application/x-matlab-data 263 bytes 11/14/2018 10:18:AM
anal_deriv.m text/x-matlab 2.1 KB 04/07/2017 11:39:AM
anal_deriv_print2f.m text/x-matlab 5 KB 04/20/2009 08:46:AM
bubbledo.m text/x-objcsrc 581 bytes 04/16/2009 01:17:PM
bubblegrow_num_eval.m text/x-matlab 32.6 KB 10/17/2022 10:41:PM
bubblegrowcounter_num_eval.m text/x-matlab 25.8 KB 08/15/2018 10:37:AM
bubbleundo.m text/x-objcsrc 607 bytes 11/14/2018 10:01:AM
candmax.mat application/x-matlab-data 1.4 KB 10/17/2022 10:41:PM
cols.m text/x-matlab 41 bytes 11/29/2018 07:53:AM
compute_steady_state_growth.m text/x-matlab 3.2 KB 04/07/2017 11:42:AM
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Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary We analyze the ups and downs in economic growth in recent decades by constructing a model with recurrent bubbles, crashes, and endogenous growth. Once realized, bubbles crowd in investment and stimulate economic growth, but expectation about future bubbles crowds out investment and reduces economic growth. We identify bubbly episodes by estimating the model using the U.S. data. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the IT and housing bubbles not only caused economic booms but also lifted U.S. GDP by almost 2 percentage points permanently, but the economy could have grown even faster if people had believed that asset bubbles would never arise.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
      G01 Financial Crises
      O40 Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General


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Published Versions

V1 [2023-03-27]

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