Data and Code for: Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Gordon B. Dahl, University of California-San Diego; Runjing Lu, University of Alberta; William Mullins, University of California-San Diego

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
  data 01/15/2022 11:10:PM
  dta 01/15/2022 11:33:PM
  program 01/15/2022 11:34:PM
README.pdf application/pdf 155.5 KB 03/21/2022 07:12:PM

Project Citation: 

Dahl, Gordon B., Lu, Runjing, and Mullins, William. Data and Code for: Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2022. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2022-11-21. https://doi.org/10.3886/E159541V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites. 

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Fertility; Partisanship; Elections
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
      J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage United States
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1994 – 2019
Universe:  View help for Universe Births between 1994 and 2019 in the United States
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) aggregate data; observational data; program source code

Methodology

Data Source:  View help for Data Source
Association of Religion Data Archives. “Religious Congregations and Membership Study, 2000 (Counties File).” Accessed April 25, 2021. https://www.thearda.com/Archive/Files/Downloads/RCMSCY_DL2.asp.
Association of Religion Data Archives. “U.S. Religion Census: Religious Congregations and Membership Study, 2010 (County File).” Accessed April 25, 2021. https://www.thearda.com/Archive/Files/Descriptions/RCMSCY10.asp. 
Autor, David, David Dorn, Gordon Hanson, and Kaveh Majlesi. 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure." American Economic Review, 110 (10): 3139-83.
CIVIQS. “National Economy: Direction.” Accessed August 18, 2021. https://civiqs.com/results/economy_us_direction?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=false&net=t.... 
Dave Leip. “Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.” Accessed July 16, 2019. https://uselectionatlas.org/.
MCDC Data Applications. “Geocorr 2000: Geographic Correspondence Engine.” Accessed July 16, 2019. http://mcdc.missouri.edu/applications/geocorr2000.html.
MIT Election Data + Science Lab. “County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2020.” Harvard Dataverse, V9, UNF:6:qSwUYo7FKxI6vd/3Xev2Ng== [fileUNF]. Accessed July 16, 2019. https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ.
National Journal. “Trump campaign visits.” Accessed August 13, 2019. http://traveltracker.nationaljournal.com/. 
NCHS. 1994–2019. “U.S. restricted-Use Natality Data.” National Vital Statistics System. Accessed May 28, 2019 and May 17, 2021. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/nvss-restricted-data.htm
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “County unemployment rate.” Accessed June 25, 2019. https://download.bls.gov/pub/time.series/la/. 
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. “CAINC1: Annual Personal Income by County.” Accessed April 17, 2021. https://apps.bea.gov/regional/downloadzip.cfm. 
U.S. Census Bureau. “Annual County Resident Population Estimates by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019 (CC-EST2019-ALLDATA).” Accessed July 22, 2019. https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-counties-detail.html?#. 
U.S. Census Bureau. “US Intercensal County Population Data by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin.” Accessed July 22, 2019. https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-intercensal-county-population-data-age-sex-race-and-hispanic-o....  
U.S. Census Bureau. “Sex By Educational Attainment For The Population 25 Years And Over (White Alone, Not Hispanic Or Latino).” Accessed November 30, 2020. https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=Table%20C15002H&tid=ACSDT1Y2019.C15002H.
U.S. Census Bureau. “Sex By Educational Attainment For The Population 25 Years And Over (Black Or African American Alone).” Accessed November 30, 2020. https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=Table%20C15002B.
U.S. Census Bureau. “Sex By Educational Attainment For The Population 25 Years And Over (Hispanic Or Latino).” Accessed November 30, 2020. https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=Table%20C15002I.
U.S. Census Bureau. “Sex By Educational Attainment For The Population 25 Years And Over.” Accessed November 30, 2020. https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=Table%20B15002. 
U.S. Census Bureau. “Percent Urban and Rural In 2010 by State and County.” Accessed September 3, 2020. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/geography/guidance/geo-areas/urban-rural/2010-urban-rural.ht.... Census Bureau. “Percent Urban and Rural In 2010 by State and County.” Accessed September 3, 2020. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/geography/guidance/geo-areas/urban-rural/2010-urban-rural.ht....
Unit(s) of Observation:  View help for Unit(s) of Observation County
Geographic Unit:  View help for Geographic Unit County

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