Data and Code for: Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) David Danz, University of Pittsburgh; Lise Vesterlund, University of Pittsburgh; Alistair Wilson, University of Pittsburgh

Version: View help for Version V1

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Project Citation:

Danz, David, Vesterlund, Lise, and Wilson, Alistair. Data and Code for: Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2022. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2022-08-23. https://doi.org/10.3886/E157161V1

Project Description

Summary:

Subjective beliefs are crucial for economic inference, yet behavior can challenge the elicitation. We propose that belief elicitation should be incentive compatible not only theoretically but also in a de facto behavioral sense. To demonstrate, we show that the binarized scoring rule, a state-of-the-art elicitation, violates two weak conditions for behavioral incentive compatibility: (i) within the elicitation, information on the incentives increases deviations from truthful reporting; and (ii) in a pure choice over the set of incentives, most deviate from the theorized maximizer. Moreover, we document that deviations are systematic and center-biased, and that the elicited beliefs substantially distort inference.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: Belief Elicitation; Behavioral Compatability; Binarized Scoring

JEL Classification:
      C90 Design of Experiments: General
      C91 Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Individual
      D81 Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
      D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
      D84 Expectations; Speculations

Data Type(s): experimental data

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V1 [2022-08-23]

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