Data and Code for: Pensions and Fertility: Micro-Economic Evidence

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Alexander M. Danzer, Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt; Lennard Zyska, Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt

Version: View help for Version V1

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Pensions_and_Fertility_Micro_Evidence			04/27/2022 09:58:AM
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Project Citation:

Danzer, Alexander M., and Zyska, Lennard. Data and Code for: Pensions and Fertility: Micro-Economic Evidence. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2023. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-04-07. https://doi.org/10.3886/E155501V1

Project Description

Summary: This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women’s fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil’s expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Difference-in-differences, instrumental variable and event study methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women in fertile age by 8% in the short-run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the Pay-As-You-Go pension system in the long-run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women and among mothers with sons.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: Pension wealth; Fertility; Old-age security hypothesis; Qasi-experiment; PAYG; Brazil

JEL Classification:
      D15 Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
      H55 Social Security and Public Pensions
      I38 Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
      J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

Geographic Coverage: Brazil

Time Period(s): 1981 – 2014

Universe: Brazilian women in fertile age (15-44 years).

Data Type(s): administrative records data; aggregate data; census/enumeration data

Methodology

Data Source: IBGE Brazilian National Household Sample Survey (1981-90, 1992-93, 1995-99, 2001-09, 2011-14), Brazilian Census - IMPUMS International (1980, 1991, 2000), Demographic and Health Survey (1987, 1997), World Value Survey (1991, 1997), Globo coverage data (La Ferrara et al., 2012), Annual tariff rates (De Paiva Abreu, 2004), IBGE Complete Life Tables (1998), CPI data from the International Monetary Fund (2021), International Financial Statistics, GDP, production and (sectoral) employment data from the World Bank (2021), Exchange rates from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis (2021), Coffee and soy bean prices from Macrotrends (2021)

Unit(s) of Observation: individual

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Published Versions

V1 [2023-04-07]

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