Data and Code for: Why is the Birth Rate Falling in the United States

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Melissa S. Kearney, University of Maryland; Phillip Levine, Wellesley College; Luke Pardue, University of Maryland

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
bcusage_st0417_wide.dta	application/x-stata-dta	56.6 KB	06/23/2021 09:26:AM
child_care_costs_under12_0408_1519.dta	application/x-stata-dta	4.6 KB	06/23/2021 11:15:AM
childcare_asec_09_1519.dta	application/x-stata-dta	3.7 KB	09/15/2021 09:29:AM
long-diff-religion.dta	application/x-stata-dta	5.6 KB	09/14/2021 09:51:PM
long_birth_rates.dta	application/x-stata-dta	4.1 KB	06/25/2021 10:07:AM
longdiff-RHS-0408.dta	application/x-stata-dta	93.6 KB	06/23/2021 11:56:AM
longdiff-RHS-1519.dta	application/x-stata-dta	93.6 KB	06/23/2021 11:28:AM
longdiff-rentcost-0419.dta	application/x-stata-dta	5.7 KB	06/23/2021 11:22:AM
nyfed-student-debt-per-capita-0419.dta	application/x-stata-dta	2.9 KB	06/23/2021 10:49:AM

Project Description

Summary: This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations for it. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects both very large declines within certain groups of women, including teens and Hispanic women – and smaller declines among demographic groups that comprise a large population share, including college-educated white women. We explore potential economic, policy, and social factors that might be responsible for the overall decline. We conclude from our empirical examination of possible factors that there is not a readily identifiable economic or policy factor or set of factors this is likely responsible for a substantial share of the decline. Instead, the patterns observed suggest that widespread, hard to quantify changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and the nature of parenting are more likely behind the recent decline in US births. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
J18 Demographic Economics: Public Policy

Geographic Coverage: United States

Universe: The universe of recorded births in the United States from 1980-2020 (main analysis focuses on the period from 2007-2020), among women 15-44 and within selected age and race or ethnicity groups.

Data Type(s): aggregate data; census/enumeration data

Methodology

Data Source: Data Sources: CDC WONDER Natality Database, CDC SEER Population Estimates, Current Population Survey (CPS) Merged Outgoing Rotation Groups, CPS Annual Social and Economic Supplement, American Community Survey, Behavioral Risk and Surveillance Survey, New York Federal Reserve Bank/EQUIFAX, Pew Research Center,

Geographic Unit: United States, and by State

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Published Versions

V1 [2022-02-07]

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