Zambian Presidential Election Analysis (2001-2016)
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Matthew Foster, University of Colorado-Boulder; James Scarritt, University of Colorado-Boulder
Version: View help for Version V1
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Project Citation:
Foster, Matthew, and Scarritt, James. Zambian Presidential Election Analysis (2001-2016). Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2020-06-17. https://doi.org/10.3886/E119943V1
Project Description
Summary:
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These data include Zambian presidential election data, Zambian census data, and Afrobarometer data for Zambia between 2001 to 2016. Along with the data files is a STATA .do file that automatically preps the data files for analysis and runs all models and diagnostics. This analysis is conducted for the following manuscript:
Presidential Election Outcomes and Related AfroBarometer Findings in Zambia’s Weakly Institutionalised Multi-Ethnic Party System, and Their Consequences for Democracy
Abstract: Presidential Elections in Zambia’s weakly institutionalised multi-ethnic party system involved three significant parties from 2006 until 2011 and two parties from then until now. The Movement for Multiparty Democracy was the winner until it collapsed in 2011, and the Patriotic Front has been in power since then. The United Party for National Development has finished 2nd or 3rd in all elections since 2001. We formulate four hypotheses and test them by analysing the role of ethnicity, urban-rural cleavages, and voter registration in these electoral outcomes using multi-level modelling. Next, we analyse AfroBarometer data on party support, collected at intervals between elections, and find that it often reports similar results. We find that all of these variables are significant in explaining party outcomes. Finally, we speculate why the current two-party system risks being undemocratic more than the former three-party system.
Presidential Election Outcomes and Related AfroBarometer Findings in Zambia’s Weakly Institutionalised Multi-Ethnic Party System, and Their Consequences for Democracy
Abstract: Presidential Elections in Zambia’s weakly institutionalised multi-ethnic party system involved three significant parties from 2006 until 2011 and two parties from then until now. The Movement for Multiparty Democracy was the winner until it collapsed in 2011, and the Patriotic Front has been in power since then. The United Party for National Development has finished 2nd or 3rd in all elections since 2001. We formulate four hypotheses and test them by analysing the role of ethnicity, urban-rural cleavages, and voter registration in these electoral outcomes using multi-level modelling. Next, we analyse AfroBarometer data on party support, collected at intervals between elections, and find that it often reports similar results. We find that all of these variables are significant in explaining party outcomes. Finally, we speculate why the current two-party system risks being undemocratic more than the former three-party system.
Scope of Project
Subject Terms:
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voting behavior;
Zambia;
presidential elections;
ethnicity;
democracy;
AfroBarometer
Geographic Coverage:
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Zambia
Time Period(s):
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2001 – 2016
Collection Date(s):
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2014 – 2018
Data Type(s):
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census/enumeration data;
roll call voting data;
survey data
Methodology
Data Source:
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Zambian Election Data (2001-20016), available at https://www.elections.org.zm/
Afrobarometer Data, [Zambia], [Rounds 3 to 7], [2005-2017], available at http://www.afrobarometer.org
"2000 Census of Population and Housing." edited by Republic of Zambia Central Statistical Office. Lusaka: Central Statistical Office, 2003.
"2010 Census of Population and Housing." edited by Republic of Zambia Central Statistical Office. Lusaka: Central Statistical Office, 2012.
"Living Conditions Monitoring Survey Report 2006 & 2010." edited by Republic of Zambia Statistical Office. Lusaka: Central Statistical Office, 2012.
Afrobarometer Data, [Zambia], [Rounds 3 to 7], [2005-2017], available at http://www.afrobarometer.org
"2000 Census of Population and Housing." edited by Republic of Zambia Central Statistical Office. Lusaka: Central Statistical Office, 2003.
"2010 Census of Population and Housing." edited by Republic of Zambia Central Statistical Office. Lusaka: Central Statistical Office, 2012.
"Living Conditions Monitoring Survey Report 2006 & 2010." edited by Republic of Zambia Statistical Office. Lusaka: Central Statistical Office, 2012.
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