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Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary For over ten years, the Treasury has issued index-linked debt. This paper describes the methodology for fitting a smoothed yield curve to these securities that is used at the Federal Reserve Board every day, and makes the estimates public. Comparison with the corresponding nominal yield curve allows measures of inflation compensation to be computed. We discuss the interpretation of inflation compensation, and provide evidence that it is not a pure measure of inflation expectations being distorted by inflation risk premium and liquidity premium components. We attempt to estimate the TIPS liquidity premium and to extract underlying inflation expectations. (JEL E31, E43, H63)

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms [Inflation Compensation, Breakeven Inflation, Indexed Bonds, Real Yields, Yield Curve, TIPS, Term Structure]
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
      E43 Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
      H63 National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage United States
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) event/transaction data
Collection Notes:  View help for Collection Notes Updated data and notes available here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/tips-yield-curve-and-inflation-compensation.htm

Methodology

Data Source:  View help for Data Source Updated data available here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/tips-yield-curve-and-inflation-compensation.htm

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