Replication data for: The Incapacitation Effect of Incarceration: Evidence from Several Italian Collective Pardons

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Alessandro Barbarino; Giovanni Mastrobuoni

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Project Citation:

Barbarino, Alessandro, and Mastrobuoni, Giovanni. Replication data for: The Incapacitation Effect of Incarceration: Evidence from Several Italian Collective Pardons. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2014. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-13. https://doi.org/10.3886/E114849V1

Project Description

Summary: We estimate the "incapacitation effect" on crime using variation in Italian prison population driven by eight collective pardons passed between 1962 and 1990. The prison releases are sudden (within one day), very large (up to 35 percent of the entire prison population), and happen nationwide. Exploiting this quasi-natural experiment we break the simultaneity of crime and prisoners and, in addition, use the national character of the pardons to separately identify incapacitation from changes in deterrence. The elasticity of total crime with respect to incapacitation is between -17 and -30 percent. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that Italy's prison population is below its optimal level.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
K42 Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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V1 [2019-10-13]

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