Replication data for: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Alan J. Auerbach; Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
Figure6			10/13/2019 07:08:AM
AEJPP_appendix_figure_001.m	text/plain	23.4 KB	10/13/2019 03:08:AM
LSTVAR_mleS_struct.m	text/plain	3.8 KB	10/13/2019 03:08:AM
LSTVAR_mleS_struct_linears.m	text/plain	3.2 KB	10/13/2019 03:08:AM
LSTVAR_mleScov.m	text/plain	1.2 KB	10/13/2019 03:08:AM
NBER_dates0.m	text/plain	5.2 KB	10/13/2019 03:08:AM
baseline_full_sample_nopriors_function.m	text/plain	12 KB	10/13/2019 03:08:AM
code_GB_SPF.m	text/plain	11.9 KB	10/13/2019 03:08:AM
code_decomp_forec_errors.m	text/plain	16.5 KB	10/13/2019 03:08:AM
code_fullsample.m	text/plain	11.5 KB	10/13/2019 03:08:AM

Project Description

Summary: A key issue in current research and policy is the size of fiscal multipliers when the economy is in recession. We provide three insights. First, using regime-switching models, we find large differences in the size of spending multipliers in recessions and expansions with fiscal policy being considerably more effective in recessions than in expansions. Second, we estimate multipliers for more disaggregate spending variables which behave differently relative to aggregate fiscal policy shocks, with military spending having the largest multiplier. Third, we show that controlling for predictable components of fiscal shocks tends to increase the size of the multipliers in recessions. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63)

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      C32 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
      E62 Fiscal Policy
      H20 Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General
      H62 National Deficit; Surplus
      H63 National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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Published Versions

V1 [2019-10-13]

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