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Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary This paper estimates a dynamic microeconometric model of housing supply. The model features forward-looking landowners who optimally choose both the timing and the nature of construction while taking into account expectations about future prices and costs. The model is estimated using a unique dataset describing individual landowners in the San Francisco Bay Area. Results indicate that geographic and time-series variation in costs are key to understanding where and when construction occurs. Pro-cyclical costs provide an incentive for some landowners to build before price peaks. Results also indicate that landowners actively "time" the market, which reduces the elasticity of supply.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      C51 Model Construction and Estimation
      D12 Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
      E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
      R21 Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Housing Demand
      R23 Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics
      R31 Housing Supply and Markets


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