Replication data for: Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas; Maurice Obstfeld

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Project Citation:

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, and Obstfeld, Maurice. Replication data for: Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2012. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E114237V1

Project Description

Summary: A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century's first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises, regardless of whether a country is emerging or advanced. For emerging economies, however, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis. (JEL E44, F34, F44, G01, G21, O19)

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
      F34 International Lending and Debt Problems
      F44 International Business Cycles
      G01 Financial Crises
      G21 Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
      O19 International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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Published Versions

V1 [2019-10-12]

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