Replication data for: The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Elections

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Christian Gillitzer; Nalini Prasad

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
BaiPerron			10/12/2019 08:14:PM
AEJMacro-2016-244.R2_dataset.zip	application/zip	10.7 MB	10/12/2019 04:15:PM
ASX200Bloomberg.xls	application/vnd.ms-excel	399.5 KB	10/12/2019 04:14:PM
ATO.xlsx	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet	2.8 MB	10/12/2019 04:14:PM
Betfair-data.xlsx	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet	313.9 KB	10/12/2019 04:14:PM
Census_ind_occ_ur.xlsx	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet	1.2 MB	10/12/2019 04:14:PM
DataInput.xlsx	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet	813.7 KB	10/12/2019 04:15:PM
Figure1.xlsx	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet	32.1 KB	10/12/2019 04:14:PM
Figure10a_TableA6Col1.do	text/plain	5.1 KB	10/12/2019 04:14:PM
Figure10b_TableA6Col2.do	text/plain	5.1 KB	10/12/2019 04:14:PM

Project Description

Summary: We seek to identify the causal effect of sentiment innovations on consumption. Using unique Australian consumer sentiment survey data we show that, immediately after elections with a change of government, supporters of the winning party report substantially more optimistic beliefs about economic conditions than supporters of the losing party. We argue that this variation in beliefs is orthogonal to changes in fundamentals and find robust evidence that the shifts in sentiment affect spending intentions. Furthermore, using geographic variation in sentiment, vote-shares and automobile purchases we find evidence that stated spending intentions are indicative of actual spending.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      D12 Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
      D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
      D84 Expectations; Speculations
      E21 Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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Published Versions

V1 [2019-10-12]

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DDI 2.5

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