Replication data for: Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration

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Project Citation:

Sampson, Thomas. Replication data for: Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2017. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E114000V1

Project Description

Summary: On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum on its membership in the European Union. Although most of Britain's establishment backed remaining in the European Union, 52 percent of voters disagreed and handed a surprise victory to the "leave" campaign. Brexit, as the act of Britain exiting the EU has become known, is likely to occur in early 2019. This article discusses the economic consequences of Brexit and the lessons of Brexit for the future of European and global integration. I start by describing the options for post-Brexit relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union and then review studies of the likely economic effects of Brexit. The main conclusion of this literature is that Brexit will make the United Kingdom poorer than it would otherwise have been because it will lead to new barriers to trade and migration between the UK and the European Union. There is considerable uncertainty over how large the costs of Brexit will be, with plausible estimates ranging between 1 and 10 percent of UK per capita income. The costs will be lower if Britain stays in the European Single Market following Brexit. Empirical estimates that incorporate the effects of trade barriers on foreign direct investment and productivity find costs 2–3 times larger than estimates obtained from quantitative trade models that hold technologies fixed.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
      F13 Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
      F15 Economic Integration
      F22 International Migration
      F55 International Institutional Arrangements

Geographic Coverage: European Union, United Kingdom

Time Period(s): 2016 – 2017

Data Type(s): survey data; administrative records data; other:; aggregate data

Methodology

Data Source: UK Office for National Statistics. Bloomberg. Lord Ashcroft Polls. Dhingra, Swati, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Joao Paulo Pessoa, Thomas Sampson, and John Van Reenen. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects." Economic Policy 32, no. 92 (2017): 651-705.

Unit(s) of Observation: Country,

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Published Versions

V1 [2019-10-12]

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DDI 2.5

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