Replication data for: Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian

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baumeister_kilian_jep_code_and_data			10/12/2019 06:06:PM
LICENSE.txt	text/plain	14.6 KB	10/12/2019 02:06:PM

Project Citation:

Baumeister, Christiane, and Kilian, Lutz. Replication data for: Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2016. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E113964V1

Project Description

Summary: It has been 40 years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged. Drawing on this literature, we first provide an overview of the causes of all major oil price fluctuations between 1973 and 2014. We then discuss why oil price fluctuations remain difficult to predict, despite economists' improved understanding of oil markets. Unexpected oil price fluctuations are commonly referred to as oil price shocks. We document that, in practice, consumers, policymakers, financial market participants, and economists may have different oil price expectations, and that, what may be surprising to some, need not be equally surprising to others.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      Q31 Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply; Prices
      Q35 Hydrocarbon Resources
      Q41 Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices
      Q48 Energy: Government Policy

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V1 [2019-10-12]

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