Replication data for: The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Olivier Coibion; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Rupal Kamdar

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
CORECPI.dta	application/octet-stream	26.4 KB	10/12/2019 01:45:PM
COREPCE.dta	application/octet-stream	26.4 KB	10/12/2019 01:45:PM
CPI.dta	application/octet-stream	26.4 KB	10/12/2019 01:45:PM
CPI10.dta	application/octet-stream	5 KB	10/12/2019 01:45:PM
CPI5YR.dta	application/octet-stream	5 KB	10/12/2019 01:45:PM
Mean_BAABOND_Level.xls	application/vnd.ms-office	51.5 KB	10/12/2019 01:45:PM
Mean_BILL10_Level.xls	application/vnd.ms-office	33 KB	10/12/2019 01:45:PM
Mean_BOND10_Level.xls	application/vnd.ms-office	33 KB	10/12/2019 01:45:PM
Mean_BOND_Level.xls	application/vnd.ms-office	54.5 KB	10/12/2019 01:45:PM
Mean_CORECPI_Level.xls	application/vnd.ms-office	54.5 KB	10/12/2019 01:45:PM

Project Description

Summary: This paper argues for a careful (re)consideration of the expectations formation process and a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic analyses. While the rational expectations revolution has allowed for great leaps in macroeconomic modeling, the surveyed empirical micro-evidence appears increasingly at odds with the full-information rational expectation assumption. We explore models of expectation formation that can potentially explain why and how survey data deviate from full-information rational expectations. Using the New Keynesian Phillips curve as an extensive case study, we demonstrate how incorporating survey data on inflation expectations can address a number of otherwise puzzling shortcomings that arise under the assumption of full-information rational expectations.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      D84 Expectations; Speculations
      E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
      E27 Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
      E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
      E37 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

Related Publications

Download this project

Published Versions

V1 [2019-10-12]

Export Metadata

Dublin Core

DDI 2.5

Report a Problem

Found a serious problem with the data, such as disclosure risk or copyrighted content? Let us know.

This material is distributed exactly as it arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.