Replication data for: Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Alan S. Blinder; Mark W. Watson

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Project Citation:

Blinder, Alan S., and Watson, Mark W. Replication data for: Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2016. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E112997V1

Project Description

Summary: The US economy has performed better when the president of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican, almost regardless of how one measures performance. For many measures, including real GDP growth (our focus), the performance gap is large and significant. This paper asks why. The answer is not found in technical time series matters nor in systematically more expansionary monetary or fiscal policy under Democrats. Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior total factor productivity (TFP) performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future. (JEL D72, E23, E32, E65, N12, N42)

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
      E23 Macroeconomics: Production
      E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
      E65 Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
      N12 Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: 1913-
      N42 Economic History: Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation: U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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V1 [2019-10-12]

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