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Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary We use rich historical data on military procurement to estimate the effects of government spending. We exploit regional variation in military build-ups to estimate an "open economy relative multiplier" of approximately 1.5. We develop a framework for interpreting this estimate and relating it to estimates of the standard closed economy aggregate multiplier. The latter is highly sensitive to how strongly aggregate monetary and tax policy "leans against the wind." Our open economy relative multiplier "differences out" these effects because monetary and tax policies are uniform across the nation. Our evidence indicates that demand shocks can have large effects on output.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E12 General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
      E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
      E62 Fiscal Policy
      F33 International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
      H56 National Security and War
      H57 National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Procurement
      R12 Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity


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