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Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Volker Daniel, University of Halle; Lucas ter Steege, University of Bonn
Version: View help for Version V3
| Name | File Type | Size | Last Modified |
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| descriptives_news_regressions | 08/15/2019 05:16:PM | ||
| favar | 08/15/2019 05:16:PM | ||
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application/pdf | 93.1 KB | 08/15/2019 01:16:PM |
Project Description
Summary:
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A regime shift toward increased inflation expectations is credited with jump-starting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. What role did inflation expectations play in Germany that experienced a similarly successful economic upturn in the 1930s? We study inflation expectations in the German recovery across several methods: we conduct a narrative study of media sources; we estimate inflation expectations from a factor-augmented vector autoregression model, real interest rate forecasts, and quantitative news series. Consistently across these approaches, we do not find a shift to increased expected inflation. This recovery was different, and its causes lie elsewhere.
Scope of Project
Geographic Coverage:
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Germany
Data Type(s):
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aggregate data
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