Code and Data for: How Do State Child Tax Credits Affect Employment and Poverty?

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Matthew Unrath, University of Southern California; Jacob Goldin, University of Chicago; Tatiana Homonoff, New York University; Katherine Michelmore, University of Michigan; Neel Lal, University of Maryland; Nathan Tollett, University of Chicago

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
CTC State-level Sim			05/28/2026 03:51:PM

Project Citation:

Unrath, Matthew, Goldin, Jacob, Homonoff, Tatiana, Michelmore, Katherine, Lal, Neel, and Tollett, Nathan. Code and Data for: How Do State Child Tax Credits Affect Employment and Poverty? Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2026. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2026-06-02. https://doi.org/10.3886/E248241V1

Project Description

Summary: This paper projects the employment, poverty, and fiscal effects of introducing unconditional child allowances in states lacking such programs. We use survey data to identify eligible parents, calculate the policy's change to their work incentives, and predict behavioral responses using labor supply elasticities estimated from recent state-level reforms. Our microsimulation suggests that a $1,000 per-child credit phasing out at $50,000 would reduce poverty among children under age six by 6.3 percent and lead 0.6 percent of working parents with young children to exit employment at an annual cost of $11 billion.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      H75 State and Local Government: Health; Education; Welfare; Public Pensions
      I32 Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
      I38 Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
      J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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Published Versions

V1 [2026-06-02]

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