Cell Phone Access and Election Fraud: Evidence from a Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design in Afghanistan

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Robert Gonzalez, University of South Carolina

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Replication			05/12/2020 08:52:PM

Project Citation:

Gonzalez, Robert. Cell Phone Access and Election Fraud: Evidence from a Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design in Afghanistan. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2021. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2021-03-16. https://doi.org/10.3886/E118467V1

Project Description

Summary: This paper examines the impact of cell phone access on election fraud in the context of the 2009 Afghan presidential election. I combine cell phone coverage maps with unique data on the location of polling centers to accurately pinpoint which centers were exposed to coverage during the election. Results from a spatial regression discontinuity design along the two-dimensional coverage boundary provide considerable evidence that access to cell phones deters corrupt behavior. Polling centers just inside coverage areas report a drop in the share of fraudulent votes of about 4 percentage points while the likelihood of a fraudulent station goes down by about 8 percentage points. Analyses of the effect of coverage on citizen participation in election monitoring, election-related insurgent violence, and the tribal composition of villages suggest that the observed declines in fraud are likely attributed to cell phone access strengthening social monitoring capacity. From a policy perspective, these results illustrate how a widespread technology, namely cell phones, can exert a positive externality on institutional development via corruption deterrence.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: election fraud; spatial regression discontinuity; cell phone

JEL Classification:
      D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
      D73 Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
      P16 Capitalist Systems: Political Economy
      P35 Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Public Economics
      P37 Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Legal Institutions; Illegal Behavior

Geographic Coverage: Afghanistan

Time Period(s): 2009 – 2009

Data Type(s): administrative records data; geographic information system (GIS) data; survey data

Methodology

Unit(s) of Observation: polling centers, villages

Geographic Unit: Afghanistan

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Published Versions

V1 [2021-03-16]

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